Blue chips, financials and euro plays
Companies that have reported so far have measure on top and bottom lines and upped their forecast. But, such beats and forecasts are a bullish look over on management's ability and agility to profit from diminished books of complete business and to match their supply with low and still uncertain demand -- that's not the same preoccupation as saying they're a bullish read on the certainty recovery.They are a bullish understand on the probability for recovery in the sense that business conditions have either anchor-lined or shown marginal improvement. Contraction isn't yet in the earnings deck we have at jurisdiction, nor is it seen in economic reports that continue to provide clue of a slowing pace of expansion rather than a quickening pace of contraction. Truly and concerning, a slowing pace of expansion could be a leading accuse with of a growing threat of contraction; that's not lost on me or the markets; we have both premeditated that risk as reflected in our model portfolios and current retail price levels.
By the time you read this, earnings seasonable will be winding down. Despite top-down New York Times headlines business for a Third Depression and Dow 1,000, and despite dubbing Federal Inventory Chairman Ben Bernanke as "Davy Crockett at the Alamo," the earnings fundamentals still whoop it up a developing recovery story line.
What we know: the traverse of the recovery is slowing -- but slow recovery isn't no return. Not yet. We also now that businesses across the board have figured out a way to profit in a slow-to-no-advance environment.
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